Reading Your Results
After you run LadderUp, the results show when you may be able to retire, how your investment strategy evolves, and how much retirement income it may provide. The model evaluates a dynamic stock–TIPS ladder allocation strategy across many simulated paths for stock returns and interest rates. This guide explains the results currently displayed in the app.
Dollar amounts shown as income are annual, inflation-adjusted amounts unless otherwise indicated.
Can I retire?
The Can I retire? summary highlights your estimated retirement timing and the income your plan may support.
Retirement Plan
The Retirement Plan provides suggested immediate and near-term actions based on the model's allocation strategy. These may include how to invest new contributions and how much to build up your TIPS ladder over the next three years.
Some recommendations express the ladder target as the Present Value (PV) of Secured Income. PV represents the current value of the future payments provided by the TIPS ladder, rather than the total income those payments will generate over time.
We use present value because investment allocations are measured using today's asset values. For example, a $100,000 portfolio with $50,000 in stocks and $50,000 invested in a TIPS ladder has a 50/50 allocation, even though the ladder's future payments may total substantially more than $50,000.
This allows us to compare stocks and TIPS on a consistent basis while separately measuring the retirement income they can provide.
Retirement timing and income
The main result estimates the age around which you may be able to retire. Below it, the app reports:
- The percentage of simulated paths that meet your retirement goal by your latest acceptable retirement age. A higher percentage means the goal is achieved in more modeled market conditions.
- Upside and Downside Retirement Ages: Illustrate how retirement timing varies across simulated market conditions. The Upside represents the 25th percentile of retirement ages (earlier retirement), while the Downside represents the 75th percentile (later retirement).
- Income at Retirement: The median annual retirement income across simulated outcomes, measured at each simulation's actual retirement age.
- Secured income: The median annual income secured through the TIPS ladder and claimed Social Security benefits, measured at each simulation's actual retirement age.
- Retirement Income Growth: The median annualized growth rate of retirement income, calculated across simulated retirement outcomes from retirement through the end of the planning horizon.
Income statistics are calculated across simulations that achieve retirement readiness. Scenarios that never reach retirement are excluded from these calculations but are reflected in the retirement success statistics.
These figures summarize simulated outcomes; they are not promises about a particular retirement date or income level.
Retirement Age Distribution
The Retirement Age Distribution chart shows how often different retirement ages occur across the simulated paths. Bars indicate the number of paths associated with each retirement age. The vertical markers identify:
- Median — half the simulated outcomes are at or below this retirement age.
- Mean — the average estimated retirement age across the paths.
- P90 — the 90th percentile of reported retirement ages, including the plan-end placeholder for paths that never become retirement-ready. It helps gauge the risk of substantially later retirement.
- Latest age — your latest acceptable retirement age, used to assess whether your retirement goal is achieved on time.
Never-ready paths appear at plan end age. This is a reporting convention, not a prediction that those households successfully retire at that age. A spike at the far right of the chart therefore signals scenarios that did not meet the retirement readiness requirements during the planning period.
Stock and TIPS Ladder Allocation
The allocation chart shows how the model divides investment assets between stocks and bonds as you age. In LadderUp, the bond component is used to build a TIPS ladder designed to secure retirement income.
- Stock (median) — the median percentage allocated to stocks at each age.
- Bonds (median) — the median percentage allocated to bonds, primarily for the income-securing TIPS ladder strategy.
- Age in bonds (benchmark) — a traditional rule of thumb that sets the bond percentage equal to age. It is displayed for comparison and does not determine LadderUp's allocation.
- Median retirement — the vertical line marking the median estimated retirement age.
The chart covers the years before and after retirement. An increasing TIPS allocation reflects the model's decision to secure more future income, rather than following a fixed age-based rule. The stock–TIPS ladder allocation is an output of the retirement strategy, not an allocation you must choose in advance.
Security Ratio Glide Path
The Security Ratio measures Secured Income ÷ Income Capacity, or the proportion of potential retirement income already secured.
The chart displays:
- Median SR — the median Security Ratio at each age.
- P25–P75 — the shaded range between the 25th and 75th percentile Security Ratios across simulated paths.
- SR target (median path) — the target Security Ratio along the median path, including the gradual increase in income security during retirement.
- Median retirement — the vertical line marking the median estimated retirement age.
The Security Ratio generally increases as the strategy converts more assets into secured retirement income. The shaded band shows how that progression varies with market conditions. The Security Ratio is not the same as the TIPS allocation percentage: claimed Social Security benefits also contribute to secured income.
Select Scenario: Retirement Income by Age
In Select Scenario, choose Downside, Base, or Upside to examine how retirement income may evolve under different market conditions.
LadderUp defines scenarios based on whether an outcome is favorable or unfavorable, with percentiles applied according to the direction of each metric:
- Downside: Represents less favorable outcomes. Uses the 25th percentile when higher values are better (such as retirement income) and the 75th percentile when higher values are worse (such as retirement age).
- Base: Represents the 50th percentile (median) outcome.
- Upside: Represents more favorable outcomes. Uses the 75th percentile when higher values are better and the 25th percentile when higher values are worse.
For the retirement income table, higher income is considered favorable, so Downside corresponds to the 25th percentile and Upside to the 75th percentile.
The table reports:
- Age: The age at which income is shown.
- Secured Income: Annual income secured through the TIPS ladder and claimed Social Security benefits.
- Stock Income: Annual income capacity associated with investments remaining in stocks. This represents potential income rather than stock dividends or income already secured.
- Total: The modeled annual retirement income for the selected scenario and age.
All income figures are expressed in inflation-adjusted annual dollars.
Percentiles are calculated independently for each income measure at each age across all simulated paths. Consequently, the reported Secured Income and Stock Income may not sum to Total, since each percentile can represent a different simulated outcome. Similarly, the values shown at different ages do not necessarily follow the same simulation path.
Comparing LadderUp With a 60/40 Portfolio
The comparison cards show how LadderUp's strategy performs alongside a conventional 60/40 Portfolio with a modified 4% withdrawal rule. Both strategies are evaluated across simulated market conditions to compare retirement timing, income growth, and downside protection.
Each card reports:
- Expected retirement age — the estimated retirement age under that strategy.
- Income at retirement — annual income when retirement begins.
- Secured income at retirement — the annual retirement income treated as secured by that strategy.
- Income at age 75 — projected annual income at age 75, with the percentage difference from the income target shown in parentheses.
- Lowest annual income — the lowest annual income in the reported comparison, with its difference from the income target.
- Quarters below income target — the number of quarters in which modeled income falls below the desired retirement income.
As elsewhere in LadderUp, Upside and Downside percentiles are determined by whether higher or lower values represent more favorable outcomes. Each metric is calculated independently across simulated outcomes.
Percentiles are calculated independently for each metric across simulated outcomes. Consequently, the reported statistics do not necessarily describe a single simulation path.
A conventional 60/40 portfolio can have a substantial bond allocation without producing secured income at retirement in this comparison. Unlike LadderUp's TIPS ladder, a general bond allocation is not necessarily matched to future retirement payments.
Putting the Results Together
Start with Can I retire? to see your overall plan, the likelihood of reaching your retirement goal, and any near-term investment decisions you may need to make. Use the Retirement Age Distribution to understand how much retirement timing varies across market scenarios. Then review the stock–TIPS ladder allocation and Security Ratio charts to understand how your investment strategy and income security evolve over time. Finally, use Select Scenario and the 60/40 Portfolio comparison to examine potential retirement income outcomes.
If the results do not fit your goals, you can adjust your desired retirement income, target Security Ratio, income smoothing preference, contributions, or latest acceptable retirement age and compare the new plan.
We recommend updating your LadderUp plan at least once a quarter. As stock prices, real interest rates, and your personal circumstances change, so will your optimal investment allocation and projected retirement outcomes. Regularly updating your plan helps ensure that your retirement strategy remains aligned with current market conditions and your financial goals.
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