# Reading your results

After you click **Solve Allocation Plan**, the app runs thousands of simulation paths and displays cross-sectional summaries. This guide walks through each section so you know what you are looking at. Unless otherwise noted, all charts display cross-sectional percentiles at each age rather than tracking individual simulation paths

## Plan Summary metrics

The top row of metrics summarizes the solver outcome. Paths that never retire are assigned the plan end age when calculating summary statistics.

- **Mean Retirement Age** — average estimated retirement age across all paths.
- **P-90 Retirement Age** — 90% of paths retire at or before this age. This is a quick stress-testing metric to compare your target retirement age against the simulated age under most scenarios.
- **Success Rate** — fraction of paths that retire before the retirement goal.
- **Retirement Goal** — your latest acceptable retirement age from the sidebar.
- **Median SS Claim Age** (when SS enabled) — typical claiming age across paths that claim.

## Stock / Bond Glide Path

This chart shows **median** stock and bond percentages from the **median retirement age** through plan end age.

- **Stock (median)** — share of portfolio wealth in stocks  
- **Bond (median)** — share in bonds (pre-retirement wealth; post-retirement reflects the bond ladder allocation)  
- **Age in bonds (dotted)** — conventional benchmark (bond % = age). **Not part of this model** — visual comparison only.

Rising bond share after retirement usually reflects **SR glide**: converting stock gains into guaranteed ladder income, not an age-based rule.

Charts start at median retirement age.

## Security Ratio Glide Path

This chart plots **SR = Guaranteed Income ÷ Income Capacity**:

- **Median SR** with shaded **P25–P75** band — spread across paths at each age  
- **SR target (dashed red)** — post-retirement glide from SR₀ toward 100%

One-way lock-in means SR generally tracks or approaches the target from below as stock transfers add guaranteed income. Wide bands indicate path-dependent market outcomes.

## Retirement Age Distribution

A histogram of **estimated retirement age for every path**, with vertical lines for your retirement goal (red dashed) and P-90 (orange dotted).

Use this to assess **tail risk**: a long right tail means many paths retire late even if the mean looks fine. A pile-up at plan end age suggests many paths never achieved readiness.

## Income Forecast

### Interval table

Rows are ages from chart start through plan end. Columns show **downside (p25)** and **baseline (p50)** for:

- **SS** — claimed benefits when enabled  
- **Bond** — guaranteed ladder income  
- **Stock** — Income Capacity from stock sleeve  
- **Total** — sum of components

Total figures at each percentile are the sum of the components so that each row reconciles exactly. As a result, the reported Total percentile may differ slightly from the percentile of total income computed directly from the simulations

All figures are real dollars per year.

### Fan charts

- **Total income** — median with 25th–75th percentile band  
- **Component chart** — median SS (if any), bond, and stock annuitized income over age

**Important:** Percentiles are **cross-sectional** at each age — the p25 total at age 75 is not necessarily the same simulation path as the p25 bond line. The table uses the same methodology. For path-consistent stories, the model would need single-path drill-down (not in the current UI).

Income charts start at **median estimated retirement age** (or retirement goal if no path retires) because pre-retirement income display focuses on accumulation, not retirement paychecks.

The comfortable target line in prose is your **desired income** — compare median total to that level post-retirement.

## Interpreting feasibility warnings

If the solver cannot meet P-90 ≤ goal, you still see **best-effort** results. Treat them as diagnostic, not a green light. Try:

- Lower **Desired income** or **SR₀**  
- Increase **Contributions** or **Current balance**  
- Delay **Retirement Goal**  
- Enable SS if realistic and not yet included

Re-solve after each change to map sensitivities.

## Technical reference

For formulas, gamma table details, and limitation lists, see [MODEL.md](../MODEL.md). These articles explain **how to read the app**; MODEL.md is the engineer's spec.

**Start over:** [Why this planner exists](why-this-planner-exists.md)